"The best way to predict the future is to create it"
Peter Drucker
In this week’s post, I shall be critiquing another academic
article. This article caught my attention with its interesting title, and felt
apt for the blog as well due to its relation to food. It’s eye-catching title?
“The Future of Food”
(see full title and article here)
Article Content
The article discusses the design of 4 scenarios of the future world on basis of its priorities in 2 aspects towards 2050. These were 1) economy or environment and 2) globalization or regionalization. The scenario was then tested by simulating it through a hypothetical food system model to assess the extent of natural resource use in agricultural practices.
The article discusses the design of 4 scenarios of the future world on basis of its priorities in 2 aspects towards 2050. These were 1) economy or environment and 2) globalization or regionalization. The scenario was then tested by simulating it through a hypothetical food system model to assess the extent of natural resource use in agricultural practices.
The results show that the business-as-usual model (described
as “The Affluent World”) would be the most resource depleting (see images
below) because developing nations aspire to the practice of developed nations,
as well as population increases. Recommendations made then include demand-side
solutions, such as to reduce animal product consumption and wastage, and
supply-side solutions, which include better feed efficiency.
Based
on the results, “The Affluent World” scenario would require us to produce 2
times more calories of food and consume twice the amount of water than present
day agriculture
(Source: Odegard and van der Voet, 2014)
Commentary
As anticipating changes become more critical in future planning, I feel that this article was a strong attempt to bring mathematics, science and modelling concepts to better predict the future of food agriculture. Much of the report explained how their simulation was run and justified why “The Affluent World” scenario would be more environmentally damaging, using more water, land and fertilizer (Odegard and van der Voet, 2014). However, while being thorough with their explanation, the truth is that the food system model that they conceived is ultimately static in nature, and could not ever factor in the possibility of sudden short-term or long-term changes to the food system, which are of a random nature.
As anticipating changes become more critical in future planning, I feel that this article was a strong attempt to bring mathematics, science and modelling concepts to better predict the future of food agriculture. Much of the report explained how their simulation was run and justified why “The Affluent World” scenario would be more environmentally damaging, using more water, land and fertilizer (Odegard and van der Voet, 2014). However, while being thorough with their explanation, the truth is that the food system model that they conceived is ultimately static in nature, and could not ever factor in the possibility of sudden short-term or long-term changes to the food system, which are of a random nature.
The other assumption the model makes is that the world will
consistently make a single, uniform decision accepted as a universal course of
action. This however is not true; even now there are conflicts in beliefs concerning
how food should be managed. TIME Magazine recently released an article,
where multiple stakeholders in the food industry, such as scientists to food
aid agencies and chefs, shared on their vision of food in the future, and while
some desired outcomes were common, many of them gave unique perspectives on
what they would wish to see. As some of these ideas were contradictory, we will
unlikely see both materialize, and we
will see winners and losers based on future events.
The report further suggests steps the world can take to
prevent us from ending up as ‘The Affluent World’. These points can be taken at
all points of the journey from the field to the plate, from the production, to
transport and even consumption and post-consumption. While the use of Science
has pointed to the fact that there are ways to improve the system, and reduce
the amount of resources consumed, the biggest problem I foresee is whether our values and priorities will drive us in
this same direction, and that people today will find more comfort in what
is convenient and appealing, rather than what is effective and impactful.
We
buy stuff that we think is important, what happens when we realize that not only does it kills
ourselves, but that it isn’t that important after all?(Source:
http://hollylegare.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Organics-cartoon-2.jpg)
I feel it’s becoming easier to say the world will not be
affected by how we as a community think, believe or choose, and that we should
focus on those with significant power to make that difference. What we need to
realize is that the success of these big institutions, from the corporate MNCs
who are responsible for producing the products we see in supermarkets, to the
governments of the world who manage food policy, are the result of the support from the masses,
and that we are individual contributors
to something bigger than ourselves.
The
options now might be bleak, but we can endorse the best of what is available(Source:
http://naturalnews.com/Cartoons/apple_bins_600.jpg)
Over the course of writing, I’ve come to believe that the
world has so much potential to improve on our existing systems, and that the
future of the environment does sound bleak if we keep things going the way it
is now. But I have also been inspired by the stories of what others are doing
out there. Over the week I felt inspired by a story on National Geographic about two chefs and their appreciation of their journey in a train
kitchen being a microcosm of the real-world food system, relating their
challenges in managing their wastes, seek local ingredients and appease the
increasingly refined palates of their diners to that of society today. It made
me want to figure out how my own kitchen at home can be re-designed to help me
cook better!
The journey of food from the field to our plates has evolved
and this blog has celebrated its transformation, but we need to find our
relationship with food and the environment for ourselves, so that we can have
the motivations to make that difference in how we purchase and how we consume.
Hopefully, my entries have educated and inspired my readers to take a look in
their mirror, and to be the change they want to see in the world.
~Fin
References
Odegard, I. and van der Voet, E. (2014). The future of food—Scenarios and the effect on natural resource use in agriculture in 2050. Ecological Economics, 97, pp.51--59.
Odegard, I. and van der Voet, E. (2014). The future of food—Scenarios and the effect on natural resource use in agriculture in 2050. Ecological Economics, 97, pp.51--59.