The Future of Food: looking through the Crystal Ball

"The best way to predict the future is to create it"

Peter Drucker

In this week’s post, I shall be critiquing another academic article. This article caught my attention with its interesting title, and felt apt for the blog as well due to its relation to food. It’s eye-catching title? 

“The Future of Food” 

(see full title and article here) 

Article Content
The article discusses the design of 4 scenarios of the future world on basis of its priorities in 2 aspects towards 2050. These were 1) economy or environment and 2) globalization or regionalization. The scenario was then tested by simulating it through a hypothetical food system model to assess the extent of natural resource use in agricultural practices.

The results show that the business-as-usual model (described as “The Affluent World”) would be the most resource depleting (see images below) because developing nations aspire to the practice of developed nations, as well as population increases. Recommendations made then include demand-side solutions, such as to reduce animal product consumption and wastage, and supply-side solutions, which include better feed efficiency.

Based on the results, “The Affluent World” scenario would require us to produce 2 times more calories of food and consume twice the amount of water than present day agriculture

(Source: Odegard and van der Voet, 2014)

Commentary
As anticipating changes become more critical in future planning, I feel that this article was a strong attempt to bring mathematics, science and modelling concepts to better predict the future of food agriculture. Much of the report explained how their simulation was run and justified why “The Affluent World” scenario would be more environmentally damaging, using more water, land and fertilizer (Odegard and van der Voet, 2014). However, while being thorough with their explanation, the truth is that the food system model that they conceived is ultimately static in nature, and could not ever factor in the possibility of sudden short-term or long-term changes to the food system, which are of a random nature.

The other assumption the model makes is that the world will consistently make a single, uniform decision accepted as a universal course of action. This however is not true; even now there are conflicts in beliefs concerning how food should be managed. TIME Magazine recently released an article, where multiple stakeholders in the food industry, such as scientists to food aid agencies and chefs, shared on their vision of food in the future, and while some desired outcomes were common, many of them gave unique perspectives on what they would wish to see. As some of these ideas were contradictory, we will unlikely see both materialize, and we will see winners and losers based on future events.

The report further suggests steps the world can take to prevent us from ending up as ‘The Affluent World’. These points can be taken at all points of the journey from the field to the plate, from the production, to transport and even consumption and post-consumption. While the use of Science has pointed to the fact that there are ways to improve the system, and reduce the amount of resources consumed, the biggest problem I foresee is whether our values and priorities will drive us in this same direction, and that people today will find more comfort in what is convenient and appealing, rather than what is effective and impactful.

We buy stuff that we think is important, what happens when we realize that not only does it kills ourselves, but that it isn’t that important after all?(Source: http://hollylegare.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Organics-cartoon-2.jpg)

I feel it’s becoming easier to say the world will not be affected by how we as a community think, believe or choose, and that we should focus on those with significant power to make that difference. What we need to realize is that the success of these big institutions, from the corporate MNCs who are responsible for producing the products we see in supermarkets, to the governments of the world who manage food policy,  are the result of the support from the masses, and that we are individual contributors to something bigger than ourselves.

The options now might be bleak, but we can endorse the best of what is available(Source: http://naturalnews.com/Cartoons/apple_bins_600.jpg) 

Over the course of writing, I’ve come to believe that the world has so much potential to improve on our existing systems, and that the future of the environment does sound bleak if we keep things going the way it is now. But I have also been inspired by the stories of what others are doing out there. Over the week I felt inspired by a story on National Geographic about two chefs and their appreciation of their journey in a train kitchen being a microcosm of the real-world food system, relating their challenges in managing their wastes, seek local ingredients and appease the increasingly refined palates of their diners to that of society today. It made me want to figure out how my own kitchen at home can be re-designed to help me cook better!

The journey of food from the field to our plates has evolved and this blog has celebrated its transformation, but we need to find our relationship with food and the environment for ourselves, so that we can have the motivations to make that difference in how we purchase and how we consume. Hopefully, my entries have educated and inspired my readers to take a look in their mirror, and to be the change they want to see in the world.

~Fin

References
Odegard, I. and van der Voet, E. (2014). The future of food—Scenarios and the effect on natural resource use in agriculture in 2050. Ecological Economics, 97, pp.51--59.